quarta-feira, 24 de junho de 2015

MAIS UMA VEZ A SEGURANÇA SOCIAL


Anos
Taxa de desemprego
Défice em % do PIB
Despesas com pessoal
Défice da Administração Púbica em % do PIB
1995
 7,1
 5,4
 10.990,4
 59,2
1996
 7,2
 4,8
 11.823,1
 58,2
1997
 6,7
 3,7
 12.849,8
 54,3
1998
┴  4,9
 3,9
 14.389,3
 50,3
1999
 4,4
 3,1
 15.750,5
 49,4
2000
 3,9
 3,3
 17.478,0
 48,4
2001
 4,0
 4,8
 18.645,4
 51,1
2002
 5,0
 3,4
 19.935,4
 53,7
2003
 6,3
 3,7
 19.579,2
 55,7
2004
 6,7
 4,0
 20.328,4
 57,5





No ano letivo 2002/2003, o meu professor de economia e finanças públicas propôs um trabalho de grupo cujo assunto era “ Livro branco da segurança Social e a sua sustentabilidade”. Já tinha consciência das diferenças entre o setor público e o setor privado no que dizia respeito às reformas dos pensionistas e também na forma como os descontos se efetuavam. Quando Durão Barroso chegou ao governo e fez o seu “discurso da tanga” eu defendi que em termos de segurança social deveria se igualar o setor publico ao setor privado e diminuir o nº de exceções ao regime geral da TSU (fazendo exceções ao regime geral para o público e privado e não apenas para um de ambos). O quanto fui criticado por ter essa ideia.
Tendo em conta que Portugal tinha uma dívida pública abaixo dos 60% (ver quadro em cima), até me passou pela ideia de o Estado também fazer como as entidades patronais privadas no que diz respeito à TSU, ou seja, entregar á segurança social 23,75% do salário base dos trabalhadores da função pública. Aproveitava-se a margem que ainda havia em termos de dívida pública para que esta medida entrasse em vigor. Pois essa medida apesar de aumentar a dívida pública, como se tratava de transferência de fundos, não implicava aumento de défice. Se tal medida tivesse sido tomada nos dias de hoje não estaríamos a por em causa a sustentabilidade da segurança social. Em detrimento desta medida, António Guterres optou antes por engordar o estado com mais pessoal que o necessário. Se porventura a ideia era a de diminuir o desemprego e em contrapartida esse aumento da empregabilidade conduzisse a um aumento de receitas na mesma proporção essa medida ainda se poderia admitir mas não foi o que sucedeu, nem poderia.

Se nesse ano letivo soubesse o que sei hoje, a primeira conclusão a que chegaria era a de que os pressupostos de partida estavam errados e bastava utilizar o argumento da economia funcionar de forma cíclica, dado que um dos pressupostos era o de que havia crescimento constante.

sábado, 20 de junho de 2015

How to improve your memory By Drake Baer Jan 5 2015

How to improve your memory

Cognitive science has come to a few conclusions about the mechanics of learning.
For example, if you’re trying to remember what you read, highlighting doesn’t help.
On the other hand, flash cards do.
The difference lies in what psychologists call desirable difficulty.
Essentially, when learning feels difficult, learning is actually happening.
It’s like when you lift a weight that’s at the limit of your capacity — you get stronger, faster.
“With desirable difficulty, you’re training your brain to think that something is important to your survival,” Benedict Carey, author of “How We Learn,” tells Business Insider. “You’re showing the brain that something is important by devoting mental energy.”
The most effective learning strategies take advantage of this.
Such as:
Retrieval: Where you force your brain to recall a fact, like with flash cards or the Cornell Notetaking System.
Spacing: Instead of trying to “cram” knowledge into your brain all at once, you return to a subject over a number of days. “It’s a richer mental act than when you’re just reading over,” Carey says.
Self-testing: Taking a practice test before the real test comes up. It doesn’t just give you a measure of how much you understand; it helps cement what you already know in your memory.
Interleaving: If a topic or skill has component parts, alternate between them. If you want to get better at basketball, switch between passing, shooting, and rebounding instead of devoting yourself to one. “If information is studied so that it can be interpreted in relation to other things in memory, learning is much more powerful,” UCLA psychology professor Robert Bjork tells Psychology Today.
In short, the more mental muscle you use, the stronger the memory.
It’s powerful knowledge for learners — and educators.
“That’s why the teachers who are up to speed on this will encourage students to make their own outlines of material” instead of just handing them out, Carey says. “One’s a passive thing where you’re just getting it from the professor, but with the other you’re actually digging into the material.”
This article is published in collaboration with Business Insider. Publication does not imply endorsement of views by the World Economic Forum.
To keep up with Forum:Agenda subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
Author: Drake Baer reports on strategy, leadership, and organizational psychology at Business Insider.

quinta-feira, 18 de junho de 2015

Can the BRICS escape the middle-income trap? By Michael J. Boskin Jun 18 2015

Can the BRICS escape the middle-income trap?

A few years ago, pundits and policymakers were predicting that the BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – would be the new engines of global growth. Naive extrapolation of rapid growth led many people to imagine an ever-brighter future for these economies – and, thanks to them, for the rest of the world as well.
But now the bloom is off the rose. The economies of Brazil and Russia are contracting, while those of China and South Africa have slowed substantially. Only India’s growth rate has stayed up, now slightly exceeding China’s. Will the BRICS fulfill their former promise? Or are continued problems inevitable?
Given that low-income economies typically have little fixed capital (computers, factories, infrastructure) and human capital (education and training) per worker, they tend to have higher potential returns to capital investment. That means they can grow more rapidly than wealthier economies, until their per capita income catches up.
While China, India, and Brazil still have very large rural populations, they have made great strides in reducing poverty, with several hundred million people (the largest proportion in China), escaping it in the last few decades. And these countries’ middle classes are growing fast as well.
Rapid progress in the emerging economies has contributed to economic pessimism in Europe and North America. After all, the developing economies’ combined GDP now exceeds that of the advanced economies – a situation that would have been unimaginable a generation ago.
Moreover, the hundreds of millions of low-cost workers who joined the global labor force when China, India, and Eastern Europe opened their economies are still putting pressure on the wages of all but the most skilled workers in the advanced economies. As the Nobel laureate economist Paul Samuelson observed in 1948, international trade leads to factor-price equalization, with wages, adjusted for skill levels, equilibrating across countries.
But, for the BRICS, continued rapid progress may become more difficult. Experience shows that there is a point – usually when per capita income levels reach about $15,000-20,000 (roughly one-third the level in the United States) – when growth tends to slow. In recent decades, only a few economies – notably, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore – have managed to escape the so-called “middle-income trap” and continue to increase their prosperity.
Beyond the problems that almost all developing economies confront – for example, weak institutions and poor governance – each of the BRICS countries faces a unique set of challenges. For example, Brazil must contend with a recession, low oil prices, and an unprecedented corruption scandal at Petrobras, the state oil company. Given this, freer trade, such as with the NAFTA countries (Canada, the US, and Mexico), and more hospitable terms for foreign investment, especially in energy, should top President Dilma Rouseff’s agenda.
Russia, too, is feeling the pressure of lower oil prices, both on its current budget and in terms of its ability to pursue further energy-sector development. Compounding the challenge are the economic sanctions imposed by the US and Europe in response to President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive policies toward Russia’s immediate neighborhood. Finally, Russia has a staggering demographic problem, characterized by a shrinking population, life expectancy far below the advanced-country average, and a growing brain drain.
India, at least for the moment, has the best short-run economic conditions. Inflation, a major threat to the economy until recently, is down under the guidance of the Reserve Bank of India’s governor, Raghuram Rajan. And growth is projected at 7.5% for this year. But India’s fiscal position remains challenging, and the country’s population, which will soon overtake China’s, remains mostly rural and impoverished.
Despite the looming challenges, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been slow to implement the promised economic reforms. Indeed, although he has made some small improvements in regulation, privatization, and cash transfers to the poor, bolder land and labor-market reforms remain elusive.
China, for its part, is attempting a difficult economic rebalancing, from an export-led to a consumption-based growth model. In poker terms, Chinese President Xi Jinping is attempting to pull an inside straight, gambling that a growing middle class will demand enough manufactured goods to prevent the economy’s immense excess capacity in basic industries from leading to widespread unemployment.
At under 40% of GDP – compared to at least 60% in advanced economies – Chinese household consumption certainly has space to grow. But China’s economy remains prone to considerable risks. As occurred in Japan decades ago, China is starting to face lower-cost competition, such as from Vietnam; its stock market is frothy; and Xi’s anti-corruption program, though popular with ordinary citizens, has led to widespread uncertainty about the “rules of the game.”
Finally, South Africa’s problems reflect a loss of confidence in the government, endemic corruption, massive infrastructure needs, and restrictive labor-market and foreign-investment regulation. And, in terms of reform, President Jacob Zuma is not headed in the right direction.
The BRICS are – and always have been – subject to the same forces as other economies. But, although they have increased their dependence on market forces, their governments continue to dictate too many major economic decisions, increasing the risk of imbalances or even crises. Their ability to develop institutions that support greater economic freedom, with more reliance on market competition and less on government, will likely be the main determinant of their long-term success.
This article is published in collaboration with Project Syndicate. Publication does not imply endorsement of views by the World Economic Forum.
To keep up with the Agenda subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
Author: Michael J. Boskin is Professor of Economics at Stanford University and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution.

The 4 pillars of corruption, and how to topple them By Adam Blackwell Jun 9 2015

The 4 pillars of corruption, and how to topple them

The single greatest factor in determining the legitimacy of leaders, governments and institutions (whether public, private or non-profit) is probably the amount of confidence citizens have in them. Corruption, or even the perception of corruption, erodes this trust. It not only undermines democracy and the rule of law but is corrosive to formal economies and the lives of individuals, while simultaneously promoting crime and the illicit economy.
Although corruption is far reaching and all-encompassing, it disproportionately affects the poor and the developing world, diverting funding and investment from the people and areas that need it most. It therefore directly affects the stability, security and development of societies and states. For these reasons it was an important topic of discussion at the recent World Economic Forum on Latin America, held in Mexico. It was the particular focus of an interactive session I participated in, titled Expanding the Light, which examined initiatives by the public and private sectors to increase transparency in Latin America.
The growing interconnectedness of economies, states and people means that corruption is a truly transnational phenomenon that links to other illegal activities, such as the drug trade and organized crime. A comprehensive and multidimensional approach that bridges countries, sectors and actors needs to be implemented to prevent and disrupt corruption at all levels and in all forms.
To successfully combat and prevent corruption, focus must be put on what I call “the four pillars of corruption” and their relationship with one another:
  1. The corrupters
  2. The corrupt
  3. Impunity
  4. Tolerance
Of these four elements, the last – tolerance – is the most difficult to target and eradicate. This is due to the fact that it cannot be codified and so few conventions actively address it. In many countries and communities, corruption is an established and accepted part of the culture, and a standard daily practice.
To effectively eliminate corruption, specific vehicles and policies are needed that intersect these four points; aligning with the concept of a comprehensive and multidimensional approach that involves both public and private sectors. The Forum’sPartnering Against Corruption Initiative, a partnership of more than 100 companies, is a strong example of private-sector involvement, and is currently one of the leading global business voices on anti-corruption and transparency. It works with business leaders, international organizations and governments to address corruption and set the agenda. But the private sector needs help; it needs involvement by civil society and policies that promote awareness and eliminate impunity through functioning justice systems.
NGOs and non-profit organizations, such as Transparency International, Global Financial Integrity (GFI) and Mexico’s ¿Cómo Vamos? are playing a key role, forcing legislative change but also challenging cultures of tolerance and impunity. GFI, for example, focuses on illicit financial flows; it conducts research, promotes policy and advises governments. Transparency International is a movement dedicated to eradicating corruption in government, business, civil society and daily life. Cómo Vamos, meanwhile, works as a bridge between academia and civil society, applying economic research to public policy. One particular initiative of theirs is the Anti-Corruption Thermometer, which promotes government transparency.
Recognizing the significant connection between criminal activities, the Forum’s Meta-Council on the Illicit Economy seeks to strengthen the multistakeholder approach to corruption. It advocates public-private collaboration, as well as the engagement of all relevant actors, as an essential component in addressing the issue. It also strives to enhance public awareness about corruption, along with other aspects of the illicit economy.
In the international arena, anti-corruption conventions by the United Nations and Organization of American States actively pursue many of the aspects outlined above, promoting international cooperation and focusing on both the public and private sector to prevent and eradicate corruption. To raise awareness and disrupt existing norms theUnited Nations Convention Against Corruption (UNCAC) promotes “the active participation of individuals and groups outside the public sector – such as civil society, non-governmental organizations and community-based organizations.” The OAS’s Inter-American Convention Against Corruption, like UNCAC, also encourages states to adopt the necessary legislation to ensure laws are upheld and corruption punished in the courts, shedding notions of impunity.
The OAS convention addresses several pivotal points. It:
  • Aims to prevent, detect, punish and eradicate corruption
  • Promotes, facilitates and regulates cooperation among states to this end
  • Fosters exchanges of experiences and meetings between relevant bodies and institutions
  • Calls for the establishment of central authorities to improve direct communication, international assistance and cooperation between member states
  • Outlines increasing links between corruption and the illicit drug trade
  • Calls for mechanisms to encourage and strengthen civil society and NGO participation
  • Includes extensive preventative measures section aimed at imposing and enforcing standards of conduct, implementing public-sector activity oversight systems and protection systems for those who report corruption
  • Appeals to states to prohibit and punish transnational bribery as an act of corruption
  • Calls for corruption offenses to be included as extraditable offenses.
While such conventions are crucial in the fight against corruption, there must be a comprehensive and multidimensional approach that includes cooperation and active engagement from international organizations, national governments, civil society, the private sector and individual citizens. Such a multistakeholder approach that targets the corrupters, the corrupt, tolerance and impunity, and how each are linked, will have the knowledge, strength and reach to prevent and eliminate widespread and rampant corruption all over the world.
Author: Adam Blackwell, Secretary of Multidimensional Security, Organization of American States (OAS)